A guide to California’s sleeper House battlegrounds

Sep

2024

Politico

A guide to California’s sleeper House battlegrounds

These four congressional races, though overshadowed by toss-up contests in the Central Valley and Southern California, are still in play.

By LINDSEY HOLDEN and TYLER KATZENBERGER

Californians tuned into the state’s competitive House battles are likely aware of the white-hot races in the Central Valley and Southern California that could swing the balance of Congress.

But what about the lesser-known contests that are still getting money and attention from party bigwigs?

Meet the “wobblers.”

We’ve identified a handful of House races throughout California that are still generating campaign action, even if the incumbents are considered likely to hold onto their seats.

Take a spin through our political junkie’s guide to these sleeper races.

District 3: Rep. Kevin Kiley (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D)

Kiley’s massive Northern California district is rated “likely Republican” by House race-watchers. But that doesn’t mean Morse, the Democratic challenger, couldn’t do some damage.

“It’s a competitive district,” Dave Gilliard, Kiley’s campaign consultant, told Playbook. “It’s a district that I think needs to be taken care of from a political standpoint.”

Ad buys are cheaper in the district’s more rural media market. But the fact that it stretches from Lake Tahoe down to Death Valley — and includes portions of suburban Sacramento — makes it a challenging place to run a campaign.

And Kiley has spent accordingly. His campaign and outside groups had dropped more than $1.6 million on ad buys as of Wednesday, according to tracking firm AdImpact.

Kiley’s opening message was surprisingly warm and fuzzy fare from a candidate known for his sharp jabs at Gov. Gavin Newsom and other state Democrats. It played up the congressmember’s bipartisanship and efforts to protect Lake Tahoe, promote water projects and help wildfire and flood victims.

Morse, on the other hand, came out swinging in her first spots, attacking Kiley’s stance on abortion rights and saying he voted against money for wildfire prevention.

“No one’s really litigated Kiley’s record at scale,” said Morse, who previously served as a high-ranking forestry official at the state Natural Resources Agency. “So he’s pretending like he’s somebody who’s delivering for the district.”

The on-air attacks forced Kiley’s campaign to respond quickly. Today, the GOP representative came out with an ad blasting Morse as dishonest and saying she is lying about her claim that he wants to ban abortion nationwide.

Gilliard doesn’t think Morse has the funds to keep spending at the same rate throughout the last weeks of the campaign. Kiley has maintained a sizable cash advantage in the race, based on mid-year filings.

Morse is not part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue program, which focuses on flippable seats, but party leaders are still showing their support.

Los Angeles Rep. Adam Schiff — who has time to campaign for House candidates, now that his Senate race against Republican Steve Garvey is all but sewn up — has stumped for her. He plans to come to Morse’s district in October to help with get out the vote efforts, according to her campaign.